Ottawa Senators

Atlantic · Eastern Conference

Wins

Losses

OTL

Points

5th

Atlantic

Team Snapshot

🔍

Key Insight

Ottawa sits 10th in the league despite carrying the NHL's worst penalty kill at 28th, a structural flaw that should have cost them a playoff position outright. The contradiction is resolved by elite 5v5 offense (8th in goals for) and a surging recent defensive stretch (2.2 GA/game last 5) that masks season-long vulnerability. With 3 games remaining and playoff elimination on the line, the PK remains the single factor most likely to end their season.

Strengths

Top-8 offense at 3.41 GF/game combined with 8th-ranked power play (23.5%) creates scoring reliability that has carried 42 wins despite bottom-tier penalty killing—special teams offense alone has prevented playoff elimination

Third period scoring leads all periods at 96 goals, providing the late-game offense required to protect leads or erase deficits in elimination fixtures against NYI, NJD, and TOR

Recent defensive surge to 2.2 GA/game over last 5 represents a 28% improvement from season average, directly enabling the current 3-game win streak and playoff survival

Balanced home (22-12-6) and road (20-15-4) records indicate structural consistency rather than environment-dependent performance, critical for a playoff push that includes road games

Risks

28th-ranked penalty kill at 75.0% is the single greatest threat to playoff qualification—56 goals allowed on 224 PK opportunities means every penalty taken in the final 3 games carries elimination-level risk that the offense cannot consistently overcome

Ullmark's .889 save percentage is below playoff-standard goaltending, offering no safety net for the defensive breakdowns that a bottom-5 PK guarantees—one bad night ends the season

The 28-goal differential ranks outside top-5 despite top-8 offense, exposing how severely the PK has eroded what should be a comfortable playoff position—special teams defense has cost an estimated 8-10 standings points

Upcoming opponents NYI-NJD-TOR all sit in playoff positions or contention, meaning Ottawa faces elimination games against teams with equal or superior motivation and no margin for the PK collapses that have defined their season

Ottawa enters their final 3 games scoring 4.4 goals per game while conceding just 2.2 over the last 5, a +2.2 differential that represents their best defensive stretch of the season and sits well above their +0.35 season average. The 4-1 record and W3 streak signal genuine defensive structure improvement, not variance. This timing is critical—if the defensive form holds through NYI-NJD-TOR, the offense is strong enough to secure playoff position, but any reversion to season-average GA (3.05) eliminates them.

Core Analytics

Core Performance

Offence

Ottawa ranks 8th league-wide in goals for at 3.41/game, driven by balanced period scoring that peaks in the third (96 goals, highest of any frame). The power play operates at 23.5% (8th), converting 59 goals on 251 opportunities, which directly offsets the catastrophic PK by maintaining positive special teams goal differential. Offensive consistency across all three periods prevents the late-game collapses that typically doom teams with defensive structural issues.

3.41Avg 3.08

8th in NHL

Defence

The Senators rank 13th in goals against at 3.05/game, a middling position that obscures recent defensive improvement—last 5 games show 2.2 GA/game, a 28% reduction from season average. Period-by-period GA splits are tightly clustered (71-80-80), indicating no systematic late-game vulnerability despite special teams exposure. This recent defensive surge is the only reason Ottawa remains in playoff contention given their catastrophic penalty kill.

3.05Avg 3.08

14th in NHL

Special Teams

Power Play

Effective PP unit — capitalising consistently on extra-man opportunities.

23.5%

8th in NHL

59 of 251 PP chances converted

Penalty Kill

One of the most exploitable penalty kills in the league. This unit is consistently targeted and gives up momentum.

75.0%

28th in NHL

Killed 168 of 224 penalties

Period-by-Period Danger

Most dangerous: 3rd

Goals scoredGoals conceded

1st

2nd

3rd

Most vulnerable: 2nd period

Dominant in 3rd periods (+16 goal diff) — indicating elite conditioning and strong in-game adjustments as opponents tire.

Goaltending

Linus Ullmark

Starting Goaltender · #

0.889

SV%

2.78

GAA

Linus Ullmark posts a .889 save percentage with 2.78 GAA across 27 wins, below-average metrics that place him outside playoff-caliber goaltending. In a tight playoff race with 3 games left, this tier of goaltending offers no margin for error—any special teams breakdown or defensive lapse will result in goals against that cannot be recovered.

NHL regular season only — stats update as games are indexed