Minnesota won because their shot-blocking wall β 26 blocks to Dallas's 9 β strangled the Stars' attack and protected a lead Dallas could never credibly threaten.
β‘TURNING POINT
Boldy's power-play goal at 19:28 of the second β with one second left in the period β sent Minnesota to the third with a 2β1 lead rather than a tied game, removing Dallas's ability to play from strength at home. A goal that late in a period compounds psychologically: Dallas had no time to respond, and Minnesota carried the lead and the momentum into the final frame.
πWHY MIN WON (ranked by impact β most decisive first)
1
Shot Suppression: 26 blocked shots β Minnesota's defensive structure physically denied Dallas's attack and held them to 22 shots on goal, limiting any sustained offensive pressure.
2
Shot Volume: 28 shots on goal to Dallas's 22 β Minnesota generated more danger while simultaneously closing down Dallas's lanes, a double structural advantage.
3
Faceoff Control: 51.9% faceoff rate (28 of 54 won) β Minnesota's slight but consistent puck-retrieval edge gave them cleaner zone exits and kept possession away from Dallas's top unit.
πWHY DAL LOST (ranked by impact β biggest failure first)
1
Shot Blocking Differential: Dallas blocked only 9 shots to Minnesota's 26 β Dallas's defensive structure surrendered lane after lane, allowing Minnesota's forwards sustained shooting opportunities.
2
Power Play Efficiency: 1-for-5 (20.0%) on the power play β Dallas had the man-advantage edge in opportunities but couldn't convert it into the sustained pressure a home team needs to claw back a deficit.
3
Giveaways: 14 giveaways β Dallas's puck management errors gave Minnesota repeated transition opportunities, undermining any momentum Dallas built in the third period despite their shot surge.
Three Stars
Kirill Kaprizov1st
MIN, L
1G 2A 3P4 shots on goal+218:09 TOI
Kaprizov's fingerprints were on every critical Minnesota goal, and his +2 rating reflects how consistently his shifts tilted the ice.
Matt Boldy2nd
MIN, L
1G 1A 2P7 shots on goal20:27 TOI
Boldy's game-high 7 shots created relentless pressure, and his power-play goal was the pre-determined turning point of the contest.
Jason Robertson3rd
DAL, L
1G 1A 2P5 shots on goal24:07 TOI
Robertson led all Dallas skaters in shots and points but couldn't manufacture the second goal that would have made his effort consequential.
Β·Momentum Shift
Minnesota dominated the second period at 14 shots to Dallas's 6, using that volume to manufacture Boldy's decisive power-play goal. The third period inverted entirely β Dallas outshot Minnesota 10 to 1 β but by then the structural damage was done, and Robertson's goal at 16:39 came too late to force overtime.
