Montreal won because Andersen conceded 2.90 goals above league average on 22 shots, turning a competitive game into a rout before the second period ended.
⚡TURNING POINT
Slafkovský's goal at 7:05 of the third made it 5–2, closing any realistic path Carolina had to a comeback after Robinson's second-period goal had briefly offered life. With a three-goal cushion restored and eleven minutes remaining, Carolina's identity as a physical, grinding team had no tactical mechanism to manufacture four goals against a structured Montreal defensive shell.
🏆WHY MTL WON (ranked by impact — most decisive first)
1
Goaltending margin: Andersen conceded 2.90 goals above league average on 22 shots — in a 4-goal game, that gap was the entire difference.
2
First-period strike rate: MTL scored 4 goals on 8 first-period shots, punishing every defensive lapse before Carolina could establish forecheck pressure.
3
Blocked shots: 30 blocked shots versus Carolina's 12 — Montreal's defensive discipline neutralized a 27-shot attack and protected Dobes, who saved 0.70 goals below average.
📉WHY CAR LOST (ranked by impact — biggest failure first)
1
Goaltending cost: Andersen's +2.90 goals above average on 22 shots meant the team needed five-plus goals to win — an impossible ask at 5v5 with no power-play production.
2
Power play: 0/4 (0.0%) — Carolina generated four opportunities and converted none, leaving momentum swings unexploited at critical junctures in periods two and three.
3
Physical dominance without results: 44 hits versus Montreal's 18 — Carolina's aggression never translated into puck possession or shot quality, with 16 giveaways undermining every sustained zone entry.
Three Stars
Juraj Slafkovský1st
MTL, L
2G 1A 3PSOG 4TOI 16:41+/- +3
His two third-period goals — both assisted by Suzuki — sealed the game when Carolina needed to close the gap, not concede it further.
Cole Caufield2nd
MTL, R
1G 1A 2PSOG 1TOI 15:19+/- +2
Scored the equalizer at 1:00 of the first and assisted the clinching goal, bookending Montreal's offensive dominance.
Phillip Danault3rd
MTL, C
1G 1A 2PSOG 2TOI 15:49+/- +2
Scored and assisted in the first period's four-goal eruption, with his playmaking directly building the lead that Carolina never recovered from.
