Winnipeg's faceoff stranglehold gave them structural possession control that St. Louis's special teams had neither the efficiency nor the shot volume to overcome.
Winnipeg's dominance of the faceoff circle β 65.1% β gave them structural control of a game they never should have been chasing, and a 12-shot advantage over St. Louis meant Binnington absorbed pressure the Blues' offense could never answer. This was a positional win built on puck possession, not sustained offensive brilliance.
β‘TURNING POINT
Toews' goal at 15:51 of the second stretched the lead to 3-1, converting a two-goal cushion into a margin that required St. Louis to produce twice on a team conceding 22 shots all night. That arithmetic β needing two goals against a team controlling puck distribution at 65.1% faceoff rate β was a structural problem St. Louis could not solve in the time remaining.
πWHY WPG WON
β’
A 65.1% faceoff win rate gave Winnipeg repeatable zone entry advantages and denied St. Louis clean puck retrievals throughout the middle frame, where both even-strength goals were generated.
β’
Morrissey's 4 shots on goal from the blue line in 22:16 created consistent offensive-zone pressure that Binnington had to manage alone.
β’
Hellebuyck conceded 0.20 goals below league average on 22 shots β in a one-goal game, that margin reinforced the win.
πWHY STL LOST
β’
St. Louis converted just 1-of-5 power plays; four failed opportunities against a WPG team taking 10 giveaways meant the Blues left their best path to extra goals unused.
β’
A 34.9% faceoff rate structurally prevented sustained zone time, forcing STL into reactive defense rather than generating clean offensive sequences.
β’
Binnington conceded 0.40 goals below league average on 34 shots β his performance helped, but the Blues' 22-shot output gave him no margin to work with.
Three Stars
Josh Morrissey1st
WPG, D
1G4 SOG+2TOI 22:16
His offensive-zone volume from the point sustained pressure across the game and his goal was part of the second-period sequence that broke St. Louis's back.
Dylan Holloway2nd
STL, L
1G1A2PPPGTOI 18:03
Holloway's power-play goal opened the scoring and his assist on Parayko's third-period goal accounted for both Blues tallies β personally responsible for the entirety of St. Louis's offense.
Jonathan Toews3rd
WPG, C
1G+1TOI 10:20
His goal at 15:51 of the second was the turning point β he delivered the decisive margin in under 11 minutes of ice time.
