Utah's discipline advantage and Vejmelka's 2.00-goal margin above average made Nashville's shot volume irrelevant.
Utah controlled this game because Vejmelka stole it before Nashville could manufacture sustained pressure, and a discipline gap that produced a 4:1 penalty differential handed Utah the structural advantage it needed to break the game open.
β‘TURNING POINT
Schmaltz's power-play goal at 5:35 of the second doubled Utah's lead against a Nashville team that had generated nothing at even strength. A two-goal deficit on the road in the middle period eliminated Nashville's tactical flexibility β they could no longer play for a tied game and instead needed to chase, which opened ice Utah exploited in the third.
πWHY UTA WON
β’
Vejmelka conceded 2.00 fewer goals than a league-average goalie would on 30 shots β in a 4-goal game, that margin was the structural foundation of the win.
β’
Keller's three assists generated 3 points without a shot on goal, meaning his value was entirely distributional β Utah's offense ran through his playmaking at every decisive moment.
β’
Nashville's 18 giveaways against Utah's 4 takeaways created repeated transition opportunities, compounding the damage from the penalty differential.
πWHY NSH LOST
β’
Nashville took 16 penalty minutes against Utah's 4 β that 4:1 PIM ratio handed Utah power-play opportunities that directly produced a goal and reshaped the game's structure.
β’
Saros conceded 1.30 goals above average on 27 shots β in a one-goal game that margin would have been survivable, but combined with offensive failure through two periods it was fatal.
β’
Nashville's 18 giveaways represent an execution failure that negated a 56% faceoff win rate entirely.
Three Stars
Clayton Keller1st
UTA, R
0G 3A 3P+/- +2
Keller orchestrated Utah's entire offensive output β all three assists connected directly to goals that either extended or sealed the lead.
Karel Vejmelka2nd
UTA, G
29 savesSV% 0.967
Vejmelka conceded 2.00 fewer goals than league average on 30 shots β that margin held Utah's lead intact through two periods of 30-shot Nashville pressure.
Nick Schmaltz3rd
UTA, C
1G 1A 2PTOI 18:58PPG 1
Schmaltz's power-play goal was the algorithmically identified turning point and his 18:58 of ice time reflected Utah's reliance on him at critical junctures.
