Vegas won because Dostal conceded 2.20 goals above league average on 8 shots while Marner produced 4 points across three goals to make the first-period collapse irreversible.
β‘TURNING POINT
Howden's empty-net goal at 18:04 of the third sealed a 6-2 final, eliminating any mathematical possibility of a Ducks comeback and locking in the margin that determines Pacific seeding. The algorithm flagged it because it converted a winnable deficit into a definitive statement heading into the postseason.
πWHY VGK WON
1
Goaltending: Hart conceded 1.30 goals below league average on 33 shots β in a game decided by four goals, that margin absorbed Anaheim's 33-shot volume entirely.
2
Individual Dominance: Marner posted 3G 1A across 23:07 of ice time at +4 β three separate goals forced Anaheim to chase a deficit they had no structure to close.
3
Special Teams: VGK converted 1/3 on the power play and added a shorthanded goal β that two-goal swing on special teams alone accounted for a third of Vegas's total output.
πWHY ANA LOST
1
Goaltending: Dostal conceded 2.20 goals above league average on 8 shots β in a 4-goal game, that deficit built the first-period lead Vegas never relinquished.
2
Faceoff Control: Anaheim lost the dot 43.1% to 56.9% β surrendering zone entry leverage throughout and allowing Vegas to sustain offensive-zone time that generated Marner's repeated looks.
3
Blocked Shots: Anaheim blocked just 6 shots to Vegas's 20 β Vegas's willingness to sacrifice lanes denied Anaheim clean shooting opportunities when possession momentum briefly shifted in the third.
Three Stars
Mitch Marner1st
VGK, R
3G 1A 4P5 SOG+41 PPG
Three separate goal-scoring sequences across the middle two periods destroyed any Anaheim reset attempt between periods.
Shea Theodore2nd
VGK, D
1G 1A 2P+321:20 TOI
His first-period goal at 1:06 set the tone before Anaheim's structure had established itself.
Carter Hart3rd
VGK, G
SV% .93931 saves in 60:00
Absorbing 33 shots while conceding 1.30 goals below average neutralised Anaheim's shot volume advantage entirely.
