Vegas won because Dostal conceded 2.90 goals above league average on 21 shots while Hart conceded 2.20 goals below average, and that combined 5.10-goal swing dwarfed the final margin.
β‘TURNING POINT
Dorofeyev's goal at 2:52 of the third restored a three-goal cushion immediately after Anaheim's power-play conversion had offered the only hint of a comeback, removing any tactical reason for the Ducks to push aggressively. With the deficit back to three and Dostal's structural vulnerability already exposed, Anaheim's offensive commitment effectively ended there.
πWHY VGK WON (ranked by impact β most decisive first)
1
Goaltending margin: Hart conceded 2.20 goals below league average on 32 shots β against a team that outshot Vegas 32β21, that performance absorbed Anaheim's entire volume advantage.
2
Special teams: VGK scored shorthanded and on the power play (1/3, 33.3%) β converting on both sides of special teams while Anaheim went 1/6 (16.7%) generated a net three-goal swing across just nine combined opportunities.
3
First-period execution: VGK scored three goals in Period 1 on a limited shot share β that structural lead forced Anaheim into an open game that suited Vegas's transition game.
πWHY ANA LOST (ranked by impact β biggest failure first)
1
Goaltending margin: Dostal conceded 2.90 goals above league average on 21 shots β in a game decided by four goals, those extra concessions were the loss.
2
Power play: Anaheim converted 1/6 (16.7%) on six opportunities β with six power plays and only one goal, Anaheim failed to convert the volume advantage that a comeback required.
3
Faceoff territory: ANA lost 46.9% of faceoffs β surrendering puck possession at the dot limited zone entries and prolonged defensive-zone time throughout.
Three Stars
Pavel Dorofeyev1st
VGK, R
2G2P+23 SOG in 16:43
Both goals came at even strength in the third period, killing any possibility of an Anaheim recovery.
Mikael Granlund2nd
ANA, C
1G4 SOG24:09 TOI
His power-play goal was Anaheim's only sustained threat and came on the game's highest shot volume among Ducks skaters.
Carter Hart3rd
VGK, G
SV% 0.96931 saves on 32 shots
Conceding 2.20 goals below league average against a 32-shot opponent preserved a lead that Anaheim's volume never threatened.
