Buffalo won because Luukkonen conceded 1.0 goal below league average while Montreal's power play collapsed at 14.3%, leaving the Sabres' superior special teams as the decisive structural advantage.
⚡TURNING POINT
Thompson's power-play equalizer at 7:00 of the second period erased Montreal's lead in a game that had swung to the home side — neutralizing the first-period momentum and forcing MTL to win on equal terms rather than defend. With Montreal's power play operating at 14.3% on the night, giving the lead back immediately after scoring it was a structural collapse Buffalo exploited directly.
🏆WHY BUF WON
1
Special Teams: 2-for-4 (50.0%) on the power play — both power-play goals were Buffalo's second and third tallies, meaning the entire comeback ran through man-advantage execution while Montreal's PK failed at critical leverage moments.
2
Goaltending Margin: Luukkonen conceded 1.0 goal below league average on 30 shots — in a one-goal game against a team generating the superior shot volume, that margin was the structural floor that made the win possible.
3
Defensive Commitment: 27 blocked shots to Montreal's 6 — Buffalo suppressed shot quality and protected the third-period lead through sheer defensive volume, denying Montreal's attack any clean looks in the final frame.
📉WHY MTL LOST
1
Special Teams Failure: 1-for-7 (14.3%) on the power play — seven opportunities, one conversion, against a Buffalo team that conceded four penalties. Converting at even a league-average rate changes the game's arithmetic entirely.
2
Goaltending Margin: Dobes conceded 0.8 goals above league average on 22 shots — in a two-goal final deficit that was ultimately one goal, that margin directly contributed to the loss.
3
Defensive Passivity: 6 blocked shots against Buffalo's 27 — Montreal allowed clean shooting lanes in critical moments, surrendering the shot-suppression battle despite generating more shots overall.
Three Stars
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen1st
BUF, G
SV% 0.93328 saves on 30 shots
Luukkonen's performance held a 30-shot Montreal attack to two goals, providing the defensive floor that Buffalo's comeback was built upon.
Mattias Samuelsson2nd
BUF, D
1G6 hitsTOI 23:47
Samuelsson opened the scoring and logged the game's heaviest defensive workload, setting Buffalo's physical tone from the blueline across all three periods.
Cole Caufield3rd
MTL, R
1G5 shots on goalTOI 21:21
Caufield generated more shot volume than any skater in the game and converted the power-play goal that briefly gave Montreal the lead, representing the Canadiens' clearest individual threat.
