Buffalo won because a 60.7% faceoff rate and 4-for-12 power play dismantled Montreal's structure after the first period, turning a 3-2 deficit into an 8-3 rout.
⚡TURNING POINT
Metsa's power-play goal at 17:49 of the third extended the lead to 8-3 and sealed a margin that erased any statistical doubt about the outcome. Algorithmically, it confirmed the game's decisive pattern: Buffalo ran 4-for-12 on the power play, and Montreal's inability to stay out of the box cost them at every stage of the game.
🏆WHY BUF WON
1
Special Teams Dominance: 4/12 PP (33.3%) — Montreal took 56 PIM to Buffalo's 30, gifting 12 power-play opportunities. Four conversions directly changed the game's scoreline.
2
Faceoff Control: 60.7% (34 of 56 won) — Buffalo controlled possession at the source all night, denying Montreal clean zone exits and generating the shot volume (36 vs. 22) that sustained offensive pressure.
3
Goaltending: Lyon conceded 2.60 goals above league average on 4 shots, but Buffalo's skaters responded — outscoring Montreal 6-0 over the final two periods to render the first-period gap irrelevant.
📉WHY MTL LOST
1
Penalty Discipline: 56 PIM — surrendering 12 power-play opportunities against a 33.3% PP unit is a structural forfeit, not a competitive loss.
2
Goaltending: Dobes conceded 2.70 goals above league average on 33 shots — in an 8-goal game, that margin eliminated any realistic path to recovery once Montreal began taking penalties.
3
Shot Volume: 22 shots across 60 minutes — Buffalo's 60.7% faceoff rate starved Montreal of the offensive-zone time needed to sustain pressure after their first-period lead.
Three Stars
Rasmus Dahlin1st
BUF, D
1G 4A 5PTOI 19:56
Dahlin's involvement in five goals from the blue line dictated Buffalo's offensive structure and gave every line a reliable outlet to generate power-play and even-strength production.
Jack Quinn2nd
BUF, R
2G 1A 3P2 PPGTOI 18:18
Quinn's two power-play goals were direct products of Montreal's penalty problems — he punished the man-advantage twice when the game's outcome was still in question.
Tage Thompson3rd
BUF, C
1G 3A 4PSOG 6+/- +3TOI 18:14
Thompson's six shots on goal and +3 rating reflect the sustained pressure he generated at even strength across all three periods.
