Carolina won because a dominant first period — three goals in the final three minutes — combined with Andersen conceding 1.8 goals below average to make a comeback structurally impossible.
⚡TURNING POINT
Aho's power-play goal at 14:59 of the first broke a 0-0 game and triggered a sequence Carolina never relinquished — two even-strength goals followed in 108 seconds, burying Montreal's structure before they could reset. Converting a power play to open a multi-goal burst removed Montreal's ability to respond within the same period, making the deficit psychological as much as numerical.
🏆WHY CAR WON (ranked by impact — most decisive first)
1
Shot Dominance: 43 shots to 18 — a 2.4:1 ratio sustained across 60 minutes that denied Montreal any sustained offensive zone presence or momentum.
2
Goaltending: Andersen conceded 1.8 goals below average on 18 shots — in a 4-goal game, that margin kept the shutout intact and eliminated any Montreal route back.
3
First-Period Execution: Three goals scored in a 2:47 window translated sustained territorial control into an insurmountable lead before Montreal could make structural adjustments.
📉WHY MTL LOST (ranked by impact — biggest failure first)
1
Offensive Generation: 18 shots on goal — the volume failure meant Dobes conceding 1.2 goals below average on 43 shots faced still produced a 4-goal loss, because Montreal created nothing to trade with.
2
Penalty Discipline: 32 PIM to Carolina's 24 — four power play opportunities surrendered, one converted at the exact moment the game's trajectory was determined.
3
Faceoff Deficit: CAR won 46.3% of draws but MTL's 53.7% faceoff dominance produced zero shot advantage, indicating failed zone-entry and puck-management execution following won draws.
Three Stars
Jordan Staal1st
CAR, C
1G5 hits+1TOI 16:21
His even-strength goal at 16:07 extended the lead to 2-0 inside the game's critical 3-minute burst, and his physical presence at 5 hits suppressed Montreal's transition attempts.
Nikolaj Ehlers2nd
CAR, L
2A+1TOI 17:05
His two primary assists connected the power-play and even-strength goals that defined the first-period burst, making him the direct architect of the decisive scoring sequence.
K'Andre Miller3rd
CAR, D
1A+2TOI 24:41
His team-high 24:41 of ice time and +2 rating anchored the defensive structure that held Montreal to 18 shots across a full 60 minutes.
