Carolina won because Andersen conceded 1.2 goals below average on 22 shots while Blake's 17:29 goal sealed a lead Ottawa could never recover.
β‘TURNING POINT
Blake's goal at 17:29 came just 83 seconds after Ottawa tied it, instantly erasing any momentum Ottawa had built from Batherson's equalizer. Restoring the lead that late in the second period forced Ottawa into a must-score third β a position their 5v5 offense, blanked for the final 23 minutes, could not convert.
πWHY CAR WON
1
Goaltending: Andersen conceded 1.2 goals below average on 22 shots β in a 1-goal game, that margin was the difference between a win and overtime.
2
Faceoff dominance: CAR won 54.1% of 61 draws β sustained puck retrieval throughout the neutral zone limited Ottawa's offensive-zone time and compressed their scoring opportunities to 22 shots.
3
Rapid response: Blake's goal arrived 83 seconds after Ottawa's equalizer, with Hall logging 2 assists β CAR's top line converted the one moment Ottawa had structural momentum, turning a tie into a closed game.
πWHY OTT LOST
1
Goaltending: Ullmark conceded 0.7 goals below average on 27 shots β Ottawa's net was not the primary failure, but a save margin 0.5 goals weaker than Andersen's decided a one-goal game.
2
Giveaways: OTT surrendered 15 giveaways against a Carolina team that converts on exactly these breakdowns β chronic puck management failures limited sustained offensive sequences.
3
Top-line shutdown: StΓΌtzle (23:57 TOI, 0P, -1) and Tkachuk (19:27 TOI, 0P, -1) generated nothing at even strength β Ottawa's two primary offensive drivers combined for zero points and a combined -2, gutting any realistic path to a third goal.
Three Stars
Logan Stankoven1st
CAR, C
1G4 shots on goal+2
His early goal set the tone Carolina never fully relinquished and his shot volume kept consistent pressure on Ullmark throughout.
Frederik Andersen2nd
CAR, G
SV% 0.95521 savesconceded 1.2 goals below league average
His margin above average in a 1-goal game was the structural ceiling that prevented Ottawa from finding an equalizer.
Drake Batherson3rd
OTT, R
1G5 hits19:40 TOI
His goal was Ottawa's sole even-strength conversion and the only moment they threatened to change the game's outcome.
