Ottawa won because a 66.7% power play converted twice and Toronto's 22 giveaways handed the Senators the territorial control to protect both leads.
β‘TURNING POINT
Foegele's power-play goal at 18:32 of the second period converted a two-goal lead with just over a period remaining, eliminating Toronto's margin for error entirely. A one-goal deficit invites pressure; a two-goal deficit against a team winning at 66.7% on the power play demands near-perfection β and Toronto had shown nothing to suggest they could produce it.
πWHY OTT WON
1
Special Teams: 2/3 PP (66.7%) β both goals came with the man advantage, meaning Ottawa scored zero of their three wins on 5v5 play and still controlled the game throughout.
2
Shot Volume: 38 shots vs. Toronto's 20 β an 18-shot differential reflects sustained zone time and puck possession Ottawa built through superior faceoff dominance.
3
Faceoffs: 57.4% (31/54 won) β faceoff control in the defensive zone limits zone exits for the opponent; in the offensive zone it generates the power-play setups Ottawa converted.
πWHY TOR LOST
1
Giveaways: 22 giveaways against 3 takeaways β a net turnover deficit of 19 handed Ottawa repeated offensive-zone entries and fuelled the power-play opportunities that decided the game.
2
Power Play: 0/2 (0.0%) β Toronto generated two man-advantage opportunities and scored none, leaving their only realistic path to a comeback completely closed.
3
Shot Suppression: 38 shots allowed β Hildeby conceded 1.0 goal below league average on 37 shots, meaning Toronto's goaltending masked a deeper defensive collapse; the shot volume itself signals structural breakdowns in coverage and zone exits.
Three Stars
Drake Batherson1st
OTT, R
1G1 PPG2 SOGTOI 17:08
His power-play finish opened the scoring and set the tone that Ottawa's special teams would dictate the game's structure.
Claude Giroux2nd
OTT, R
2A6 SOGTOI 17:12+/- +1
Six shots on goal from a playmaker generating two primary assists demonstrates the offensive engine Ottawa ran through him all night.
Dennis Hildeby3rd
TOR, G
35/38 savesSV% 0.946TOI 58:08
Hildeby conceded 1.7 goals below league average on 37 shots β without that margin, Ottawa's winning margin was larger.
