Buffalo won because Dobes conceded 2.40 goals above league average on 28 shots while Lyon saved 0.80 goals below average, a combined margin that overwhelmed Montreal's 62.7% faceoff dominance and 28-shot volume.
⚡TURNING POINT
Byram's power-play goal at 9:01 of the second pushed Buffalo to a 4–1 lead, converting a two-goal game into a margin Montreal could not bridge at even strength. With 31 minutes remaining and Montreal's goaltending already conceding 2.40 goals above average, the deficit required a perfect third period that never came.
🏆WHY BUF WON (ranked by impact — most decisive first)
1
Goaltending: Lyon conceded 0.80 goals below league average on 28 shots — in a 4-goal game, that cushion absorbed Montreal's shot volume and neutralized their territorial edge.
2
Power Play: Buffalo converted 2/3 opportunities at 66.7% — both man-advantage goals came in the first two periods and accounted for half of Buffalo's offense, structuring the lead before Montreal could respond.
3
Physical Presence: Greenway posted 5 hits in 13:03 of ice time — his physical game disrupted Montreal's transition and drove the even-strength goal that extended the lead to 4–1.
📉WHY MTL LOST (ranked by impact — biggest failure first)
1
Goaltending: Dobes conceded 2.40 goals above league average on 16 shots — in a 2-goal loss, that margin was the decisive deficit regardless of everything Montreal did right territorially.
2
Power Play Conversion: Montreal went 1/2 on the power play but surrendered two power-play goals against — Buffalo's special teams edge of 2 goals to 1 directly determined the final margin.
3
Giveaways: MTL committed 15 giveaways to Buffalo's 7 — despite winning the shot battle and faceoff circle, self-inflicted turnovers repeatedly reset momentum and created the defensive-zone exposure that Buffalo's power play exploited.
Three Stars
Zach Benson1st
BUF, L
0G 2A 2P+/- +1
Both assists fed the power-play unit and McLeod's goal, making Benson the primary architect of Buffalo's man-advantage structure that produced 50% of their scoring.
Ryan McLeod2nd
BUF, C
1G 1A 2PSOG 2PPG 1
His power-play goal and assist on Byram's turning-point marker meant McLeod was directly involved in the two goals that sealed the game.
Jordan Greenway3rd
BUF, L
1G 0A 1P5 hitsTOI 13:03
His even-strength goal extended the lead to 4–1 and his 5 hits in limited ice time imposed the physical cost that kept Montreal's forwards from generating quality looks late.
·Momentum Shift
Montreal dominated the third period 11–1 in shots, a complete territorial reversal from the second period's 7–6 Buffalo edge, but Lyon's 0.80 goals-below-average performance meant that volume produced nothing. Buffalo's willingness to concede zone time in the final frame reflected comfort in a two-goal lead, not structural collapse — Montreal generated the shots but not the results.
