Montreal won because Dobes conceded 1.90 goals below league average while Lyon conceded 1.30 goals above it, and Buffalo's goaltending deficit swallowed the margin in a 4-goal game.
⚡TURNING POINT
Carrier's goal at 3:54 of the third pushed the lead to 4-1 and removed any scenario in which Buffalo's power-play volume — 7 opportunities — could realistically swing the outcome. With no margin left to chase and a dominant faceoff deficit already draining puck possession, Buffalo's path back was structurally closed.
🏆WHY MTL WON (ranked by impact — most decisive first)
1
Goaltending: Dobes conceded 1.90 goals below league average on 29 shots — that suppression held a 2-0 first-period lead intact through every Buffalo push.
2
Faceoff dominance: MTL won 56.6% of faceoffs (30 of 53) — sustained possession control that neutralised Buffalo's man-advantage opportunities before they could generate sustained zone time.
3
Even-strength finishing: Newhook scored twice at 5v5 with 4 shots on goal — both goals came when Buffalo most needed a response, compounding the structural damage.
📉WHY BUF LOST (ranked by impact — biggest failure first)
1
Goaltending: Lyon conceded 1.30 goals above league average on 28 shots — in a game decided by four goals, that margin was unrecoverable.
2
Power-play conversion: 0/7 on the power play — Buffalo generated the man-advantage repeatedly but converted zero times, eliminating the one mechanism available to close a deficit.
3
Faceoff deficit: BUF won only 43.4% of faceoffs — losing the dot that consistently against Montreal's penalty kill and defensive structure made sustained offensive-zone entries against a disciplined Dobes unavoidable.
Three Stars
Alex Newhook1st
MTL, C
2G4 shots on goal+2
His two even-strength goals provided the early lead and mid-game cushion that defined Montreal's game structure throughout.
Jakub Dobes2nd
MTL, G
SV% 0.96628 saves1.90 goals below league average
His performance absorbed Buffalo's 29-shot volume and preserved every lead Montreal built.
Zach Benson3rd
BUF, L
1G4 hits19:25 TOI
His goal briefly trimmed the deficit to 3-1 and represented Buffalo's only sustained offensive threat, but the surrounding team could not build on it.
