Buffalo won because Lyon conceded 1.50 goals below league average while Boston surrendered control of the third period with 18 giveaways enabling two unanswered even-strength goals.
β‘TURNING POINT
Byram's equalizer at 10:58 of the second erased Boston's lead and reset the psychological frame of the game β Buffalo arrived as the away team and left on equal terms entering the third. A road team that answers within seven minutes of conceding has not been rattled; a home team that allows that answer loses the structural advantage of defending a lead.
πWHY BUF WON (ranked by impact β most decisive first)
1
Goaltending margin: Lyon conceded 1.50 goals below league average on 25 shots β in a two-goal game, that buffer was the floor that made Buffalo's third-period push decisive.
2
Puck security: BUF giveaways 9 vs. BOS giveaways 18 β Boston gifted Buffalo's transition attack twice the turnovers and two of the three Buffalo goals originated from defensive-zone breakdowns.
3
Third-period shot pressure: Quinn generated 5 shots on goal, anchoring a Buffalo forward group that sustained zone time when it mattered most.
πWHY BOS LOST (ranked by impact β biggest failure first)
1
Puck management: 18 giveaways β that volume against a 50-win club converts directly into odd-man rushes and both third-period goals reflect that pattern.
2
Power play: 0/6 (0.0%) β Boston generated six opportunities and converted none, leaving at least two potential lead-building moments scoreless.
3
Offensive-zone execution: Mittelstadt posted 0 shots on goal in 14:44 of center-ice minutes, and Zacha was minus-2 despite 5 shots β shot volume without situational results.
Three Stars
Alex Tuch1st
BUF, R
1G 0A+13 hits21:26 TOI
Tuch's goal at 4:03 of the third broke the tie and proved the decisive strike, converting third-period pressure into a lead Boston never recovered.
Alex Lyon2nd
BUF, G
24/25 savesSV% 0.9601.50 goals below league average
Lyon's margin removed any cushion for Boston's attack to exploit and held the game level long enough for Buffalo's transition to take over.
Jeremy Swayman3rd
BOS, G
25/27 savesSV% 0.9260.70 goals below league average
Swayman conceded fewer goals than league average on 27 shots β without that performance, Boston's giveaway volume would have produced a larger deficit sooner.
