Buffalo won because Swayman conceded 3.10 goals above league average on 29 shots while a 15-to-5 first-period shot advantage buried Boston before it could respond.
β‘TURNING POINT
Tuch's 6-0 goal at 6:32 of the third period arrived after Boston had clawed back 10 second-period shots and showed signs of life β it killed any remaining competitive tension and sealed the margin before Kuraly's late shorthanded consolation. The goal confirmed that Buffalo's second-period defensive discipline had held and that Boston's P2 momentum produced zero conversion.
πWHY BUF WON (ranked by impact β most decisive first)
1
Shot dominance: 15 BUF shots vs. 5 BOS in P1 β four goals in the first 15 minutes created an insurmountable structural deficit before Boston's penalty kill or offense could function.
2
Goaltending margin: Lyon conceded 1.40 goals below league average on 24 shots β in a 6-goal game, that cushion eliminated any path back for Boston.
3
Depth scoring: Six different goal-scorers across four forward lines β no line was suppressed, and Boston's defensive structure had no matchup answer.
πWHY BOS LOST (ranked by impact β biggest failure first)
1
Goaltending margin: Swayman conceded 3.10 goals above league average on 29 shots β in a game decided by five goals, that margin is the game.
2
Faceoff collapse: BOS won 66.7% of faceoffs yet generated only 24 shots β puck possession out of draws did not convert to sustained zone time or scoring chances.
3
Physical pressure without consequence: BOS outfought BUF 42-23 in hits but registered only 12 blocked shots, meaning the physicality generated no defensive payoff and no momentum shift in regulation.
Three Stars
Alex Lyon1st
BUF, G
SV% 0.95823/24 savesTOI 60:00
Lyon's margin of 1.40 goals below league average preserved the shutout through two periods and denied Boston any foothold to stage a comeback.
Bowen Byram2nd
BUF, D
1G 1A2P+/- +3TOI 22:59
Byram's plus-three rating across nearly 23 minutes of ice time anchored Buffalo's defensive structure while contributing directly to the first-period scoring burst.
Alex Tuch3rd
BUF, R
1G 1A2PSOG 6TOI 18:35
Tuch's six shots on goal were the most of any skater in the game, and his third-period goal functioned as the final nail on any residual Boston hope.
Β·Momentum Shift
Boston outshot Buffalo 10-4 in the second period, a six-shot swing that represented genuine territorial pressure β but zero goals against a Lyon who conceded 1.40 below average meant the momentum produced no scoreboard consequence. The failure to convert that P2 dominance left Boston requiring an essentially impossible comeback entering the third.
