Montreal won because their 29-shot volume overwhelmed Tampa Bay's structure, and Hutson's overtime winner closed a game where MTL out-shot TBL 29–17.
⚡TURNING POINT
Dach's equalizer at 12:43 of the second period — his second point of the game on a +3 night — neutralized Tampa Bay's lead and forced a game that TBL's lower shot volume could not win in regulation. The goal eliminated the only structural advantage Tampa Bay held at that moment, shifting the burden onto a penalty kill already depleted by eight man-advantages against.
🏆WHY MTL WON (ranked by impact — most decisive first)
1
Shot Volume: 29 SOG to TBL's 17 — a 12-shot advantage that denied Vasilevskiy any rhythm and manufactured the sustained zone time that produced the overtime winner.
2
Line Depth: Three separate forwards — Texier, Dach, Hutson — each produced multi-point or game-deciding contributions at even strength, preventing Tampa Bay from keying defensively on a single threat.
3
Physical Presence: Blocked Shots 19 vs. TBL's 14, and Xhekaj's 8 hits in 10:40 of ice time — MTL's physicality compressed TBL's offensive zone entries in the third period when the game was level.
📉WHY TBL LOST (ranked by impact — biggest failure first)
1
Power Play Collapse: 1/8 (12.5%) — seven unused man-advantages in a game decided by one overtime goal represents the single largest squandered margin. Converting at league average would have changed the outcome.
2
Shot Suppression Failure: TBL generated only 17 shots in 62-plus minutes — insufficient volume to pressure Dobes, who conceded 0.30 goals above league average on 29 shots but was never tested consistently enough for that margin to matter.
3
Giveaways: 9 TBL giveaways against MTL's 17 — despite the raw disparity favoring Tampa, their giveaways came in more dangerous areas, feeding Montreal's transition opportunities that built the shot advantage.
Three Stars
Lane Hutson1st
MTL, D
1G26:40 TOI2 SOG
Hutson's overtime winner at 2:09 ended the game while leading all skaters in ice time, making him the decisive on-ice presence when it mattered most.
Kirby Dach2nd
MTL, C
1G 1A+/- +32 SOG in 11:32 of ice time
Dach's two-point, +3 night included the turning-point equalizer that reset the game's structure and enabled overtime.
Brandon Hagel3rd
TBL, L
1G24:58 TOI2 SOG
Hagel's even-strength goal gave Tampa Bay their lone lead of the game and was the one TBL forward who sustained consistent on-ice impact across his minutes.
