Tampa Bay won because Kucherov's equalizer at 12:33 of the third erased Montreal's lead and forced overtime, where Tampa's faceoff dominance and shot volume advantage of 34–27 sealed the outcome.
⚡TURNING POINT
Kucherov's equalizer at 12:33 of the third dissolved the one structural protection Montreal had built — its lead — and returned the game to a neutral state where Tampa's shot advantage and faceoff edge became decisive. Once tied, Montreal's 47.9% faceoff rate meant Tampa controlled puck retrieval in overtime, directly enabling Moser's winner.
🏆WHY TBL WON (ranked by impact — most decisive first)
1
Shot Volume: 34 shots to MTL's 27 — Tampa generated seven additional scoring chances across regulation and overtime, creating the sustained pressure that eventually broke Montreal's defensive structure.
2
Faceoff Control: 52.1% faceoff rate (38 of 73) — in overtime, winning draws translates directly to zone possession, and Tampa's edge created the offensive-zone time that set up the game-winner.
3
Discipline Under Pressure: 0/11 on the power play conceded zero goals — Tampa killed all eleven Montreal power plays at 100%, neutralizing the one area where Montreal generated consistent offense.
📉WHY MTL LOST (ranked by impact — biggest failure first)
1
Power Play Execution: 1/12 at 8.3% — Montreal earned twelve man-advantages and converted only one, squandering the primary mechanism by which they could have extended their lead.
2
Giveaways: 20 giveaways against Tampa's 15 — Montreal's puck management failures in the defensive zone created the turnovers that fuelled Tampa's shot volume and ultimately its equalizer.
3
Shot Suppression: 34 shots against versus 27 generated — Montreal's defensive structure failed to limit Tampa's access, and that seven-shot deficit compounded over sixty-plus minutes until it produced the tying and winning goals.
Three Stars
J.J. Moser1st
TBL, D
1G+229:14 TOI
Moser logged the most ice time among Tampa skaters and delivered the overtime winner, his usage in the game's highest-leverage minutes reflecting the trust Tampa placed in him to decide this outcome.
Andrei Vasilevskiy2nd
TBL, G
SV% .926
Vasilevskiy conceded 2 goals on 27 shots, holding Montreal to below league-average conversion and keeping Tampa in a game where their offense trailed into the third period.
Jakub Dobes3rd
MTL, G
SV% .912
Dobes conceded 3 goals on 34 shots — his performance held Montreal competitive against a higher-volume attack, though the margin on 34 shots ultimately proved insufficient to force a regulation win.
