Tampa Bay won because Dobes conceded 1.0 goal above league average on 20 shots while Hagel's two third-period goals erased a two-goal deficit.
âĄTURNING POINT
Hagel's power-play goal at 1:40 of the third period immediately erased Montreal's lead and reset the game to 2â2 before Centre Bell had time to settle. Converting that early in the period denied Montreal any chance to defend a lead, forcing them into a reactive posture they never escaped.
đWHY TBL WON (ranked by impact â most decisive first)
1
Goaltending margin: Dobes conceded 1.0 goal above league average on 20 shots â in a one-goal game decided in the final period, that margin was the difference between winning and advancing.
2
Third-period execution: TBL scored twice in the final frame while holding Montreal to zero shots of consequence, converting both their 5v5 and power-play opportunities when period leverage was highest.
3
Giveaways: TBL committed 15 giveaways to Montreal's 4 yet survived because their offensive line of HagelâKucherovâGuentzel combined for 6 points, producing results that outweighed the possession risk.
đWHY MTL LOST (ranked by impact â biggest failure first)
1
Goaltending margin: Dobes conceded 1.0 goal above average on 20 shots â in a game Montreal led 2â1 entering the third, that shortfall was structural, not incidental.
2
Faceoff dominance didn't convert: MTL won 64.9% of faceoffs and landed 50 hits yet managed 3 second-period shots and zero third-period goals â physical control of play never produced the territorial pressure to protect the lead.
3
Power-play collapse: MTL went 1-for-8 at 12.5% while TBL converted the only PP that decided the game, surrendering the momentum advantage of a man-up opportunity at the critical 1:40 mark of the third.
Three Stars
Brandon Hagel1st
TBL, L
2G 0A2P1 PPG3 SOGTOI 25:34+/- +1
Both goals came in the third period â his PPG at 1:40 forced the tie and his EV strike at 15:07 closed it out.
Jake Guentzel2nd
TBL, C
1G 1A2P2 SOGTOI 22:40+/- +1
His assist on Hagel's game-winner and his own late second-period goal framed Tampa's entire comeback structure.
Kaiden Guhle3rd
MTL, D
0G 1A1P11 hitsTOI 22:48+/- 0
He was Montreal's most physically dominant skater and the primary driver behind their 50-hit team total, though that output could not prevent the third-period collapse.
·Momentum Shift
Tampa Bay trailed the shot count 9â6 in the first period as Montreal controlled the home ice, but flipped the differential decisively in the second period with a 9â3 shot advantage. That second-period shot dominance produced Guentzel's late goal and carried Tampa's structural edge into the third, where they finished the job.
