Tampa's power play went 1-for-7 against a Buffalo team that controlled its own zone and got goaltending above expectation β that arithmetic had only one outcome.
Buffalo's structural advantages β puck management, goaltending margin, and a power play that forced Tampa to burn six penalties β decided this Atlantic Division showdown at KeyBank Center. The Sabres didn't outshoot the Lightning by a wide margin, but they were cleaner with the puck and better at suppressing the chances that matter.
β‘TURNING POINT
Zucker's 5v5 goal at 7:38 of the second restored Buffalo's two-goal cushion just three minutes after Tampa had clawed back to within one, denying the Lightning any sustained momentum from Guentzel's equalizer. That immediate counter-punch collapsed Tampa's window to build psychological pressure and locked the Sabres back into a position where they controlled the game's terms.
πWHY BUF WON
β’
Luukkonen conceded 0.50 goals below league average on 25 shots β in a two-goal game, that margin was the structural foundation of the win.
β’
Buffalo's giveaway differential (11 vs. 17) forced Tampa into reactive hockey rather than sustained offensive zone time.
β’
Quinn's empty-netter at 18:06 of the third was made possible by BUF's ability to protect structure late, a direct product of puck management discipline throughout.
πWHY TBL LOST
β’
Tampa's power play converted just 1-of-7 opportunities β burning six Sabres penalties without generating offense is the clearest single-game explanation for the loss.
β’
Seventeen giveaways created sustained pressure against themselves and handed Buffalo transition chances they could not recover.
β’
Vasilevskiy conceded 0.10 goals above average on 30 shots β marginal, but in a two-goal game, every preventable goal carries decisive weight.
Three Stars
Alex Tuch1st
BUF, R
1G6 shots on goalTOI 17:59
His shot volume sustained offensive pressure that forced Tampa's defense into repeated coverage decisions.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen2nd
BUF, G
SV% .92023/25 savesTOI 60:00
He conceded 0.50 goals below league average β a margin that directly held Buffalo's lead through two periods of sustained Tampa pressure.
Jason Zucker3rd
BUF, L
1G 1A+/- +24 shots on goal in 13:44 TOI
His two points both came at pivotal moments and his goal was the game's algorithmic turning point.
